A New Conservative Reality: The Conservatives and the Use of Photoshop (Badly)

PP Image
Press Progress just posted (on September 23rd) a comical post highlighting what appears to be a farcical attempt by Tim Laidler’s campaign to Photoshop Tim Laidler’s name over another Conservative candidate’s sign for promotional purposes.  Have a look here.  Below is the original context of the photo in question.   Vancitybuzz.com also subsequently posted on the same topic.  It’s all very funny until you consider this: If Mr. Laidler is willing to be part of something like this during an election campaign, what would he be capable of should he ever make it to Ottawa?  Some food for thought.

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Press Progress comparison graphic.
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Vancitybuzz.com comparison graphic

Some more photos from the event showing the Thind sign present.

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What this incident shows is that if reality doesn’t fit and it suits you as a Conservative, just Photoshop it (badly) and make it part of the new Conservative reality.  Maybe no one will notice?  Again, if people like this are willing to do these kinds of actions as part of an election campaign (and against a candidate from their own party no less), what would they do once in Ottawa?  Why would we ever let them back into Ottawa?  We have already seen that ethics are not the Conservatives’ strong point.  Fool me thrice?

Edit: Subsequent to the publishing of the Press Progress and Vancity Buzz posts, the following statement appeared on the Vancity Buzz post:

UPDATE: A representative from Tim Laidler’s election campaign has confirmed to Vancity Buzz that a communications volunteer did in fact photoshop Laidler’s name over top of another candidate’s sign, but that “no harm or misrepresentation was intended”.

“…no misrepresentation was intended”? Really? Looks exactly like intended misrepresentation to me.

I must say that I do feel for the communications volunteer in question as that probably was not a good day for them (when the graphic came to light and the posts began to appear).  However, that said, the fact is that there is no way that that graphic like that should have left the office.  It is a failing of the campaign manager and the candidate in question to not attend to and/or review everything that leaves the office with the candidate’s name on it.  It is not a failing of the communications volunteer as I’m sure they were only trying to help.  The incident instead speaks to poor internal communications and a lack of attention to details, something that you would hope someone seeking office at the highest level would be good at. Identifying the source of the graphic as a communications volunteer also speaks to a lack of taking responsibility for the campaign by those in charge. The campaign essentially just hung the volunteer out to dry.  For the communication volunteer, that must not have felt very good.  Not cool.

 

 

 

Polling Results in the Riding of Port Moody-Coquitlam (Updated)

Today (August 20, 2015) I became aware of what appears to be first poll results from the riding of Port Moody-Coquitlam.  The poll, which was apparently commissioned privately by the group Leadnow and conducted by Environics, took place between August 15-18.  The summary results of the poll are posted on their website here (and reproduced below).

Polling Data?

Details concerning the poll can be found here.  The results suggest that the NDP’s Fin Donnelly is currently leading in the riding with 54% of the decided vote, followed by the Conservatives’ Tim Laidler in second place with 27%, the Liberal’s Jessie Adcock with 14%, and the Green Party’s Marcus Madsen with 5%.  These values are interesting as they largely mimic the projections provided by ThreeHundredEight.com (reproduced below) which suggest that the NDP’s Fin Donnelly is currently leading in the race with a median estimate of 45% of the vote (range 43.2% – 48.7%) followed by the Conservatives’ Tim Laidler with a median estimate of 32% (range 30.4% – 35.2%), the Liberals’ Jessie Adcock with a median estimate of 16.5% (range 14.9% – 17.7%), and the Green Party’s Marcus Madsen with a median estimate of 5.4% (range 4.9% – 5.8%), and “other” with an estimate of 1.1% (range 0.4% – 1.3%).  The ThreeHundredEight.com website currently estimates that there is a 78% chance of a NDP win in the riding.  A NDP win for the riding is also the predicted result according to the ElectionPrediction.org website.

308 Estimate

Now, a few caveats must be expressed about the Leadnow poll results and the projection provided by ThreeHundredEight.com.  First of all, it must be remembered that we are still very, very early in the campaign with almost none of the candidates having quite yet hit their stride campaignwise.  Moreover, as a local pundit will I’m sure be quick to point out, we have the experience in our recent memory locally where the polls were decidedly incorrect (cast your mind back to the Province headline that said Adrian Dix could kick a dog and still get elected below).

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Past experience has shown us that campaigners on all sides should not be complacent in regards to the polling result provided by Leadnow and/or the projection put forth by ThreeHundredEight.com as we still have a long, long way to go in this race.  That said, the Leadnow poll results and the ThreeHundredEight.com are useful in themselves as they at the very least, provide a baseline from which subsequent polling results may be compared and evaluated.

Edit: A second Environics poll conducted Sep. 18-21 was recently published for the riding and can be found here.   The second poll shows the NDP dropping by 13 points but still maintaining a 7 point lead over their nearest rival the Conservatives, who gained 7 points and are now sitting at 34% according to the poll.   The Liberals increased their support by 5 points and are now sitting at 19% while the Greens have increased their support by 2 points and now sit at 7%.  Overall the results indicate the same relative placement in terms of the standings in the race and an overall tightening of the race.   At the same time, the poll also suggests that a substantial undecided vote still remains.  One must remember that this second batch of polling data would have taken into account the NDP Syrian refugee controversy with the effects of that now being factored in.  Conversely, the poll took place before the Conservatives’ politicization of the Terry Fox announcement, which will likely affect the local Conservative vote, especially amongst right-leaning swing voters.

Second poll

Most Recent Data
Most recent polling data projected against 2011 results.

The above graphic displays the most recent results plotted against the results from 2011 showing a slight increase in NDP and Green support from 2011, a drop in Conservative support since 2011, and an increase in Liberal support since 2011.

My prediction?  Looking forward and barring any major gaffes, I am expecting a strong surge in Liberal support in the riding given the recent performance of the Liberals nationally and as such, in my opinion we are very likely to see a split on the right in the riding with a fairly substantial core NDP vote in Coquitlam augmented by a core NDP support in Port Moody/Anmore likely carrying the day.  On the right, the two Port Moody/Anmore-based Liberal and Conservative candidates will likely split the vote in what has traditionally been a Conservative area.  That said, irrespective of what happens in Port Moody/Anmore, it should be remembered that Coquitlam numerically dominates the Port Moody/Anmore area so ultimately whoever carries Coquitlam will likely, as I say, carry the day and at least for the moment, for various reasons, it appears that that likely will be the NDP.  Only time will tell of course. Just ask Adrian Dix.

 

Port Moody-Coquitlam 2015 Election Blog

 

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High Resolution PDF Map of the Riding of Port Moody-Coquitlam

Port Moody-Coquitlam Riding Statistics (2012)

Pundit Guide’s Profile of the riding of Port Moody-Coquitlam

Welcome to the Port Moody-Coquitlam 2015 election blog.  Blog posts and articles of interest to the riding of Port Moody-Coquitlam concerning the upcoming Federal election will be posted here.